Preparing for the next step in urban mobility: insights from commercial robotaxi deployments
Driverless robotaxis—automated vehicles operating as taxi services—have moved beyond pilot projects into commercial deployment, particularly in the United States and China. A recent study, “Learning for Deployment of Robotaxis at Scale”, funded by Vinnova, the Swedish Innovation Agency, via Future Mobility, examines these deployments to prepare the public sector in Europe—especially in Sweden—for potential large-scale implementation.
The study was conducted by Ingrid Skogsmo, PhD h.c. (VTI) and Sven Beiker, PhD (Silicon Valley Mobility), with support from Pony.ai and Zeekr Technology Europe. The study is based on extensive research, interviews with stakeholders across the U.S., China, Europe, and Sweden, and focus group discussions with citizens in California. Insights from U.S. and Chinese operations were analyzed against the expectations, targets, and concerns expressed by Swedish stakeholders.
“Once digging deeper into robotaxis, I realized how different objectives, needs and priorities regarding urban mobility are among different stakeholders. Especially when comparing municipalities and tech companies, it becomes so obvious that there is a lot of alignment work necessary to ensure sustainable, efficient, and equitable mobility. This will not happen automatically!”
– Sven Beiker, Managing Director, Silicon Valley Mobility
"The main purpose of this study was to learn from places where robotaxis are already in commercial operation – mainly in certain parts of the United States and in China. While we can learn a lot from these cases, especially when it comes to vehicles and technology, there still don’t seem to be any examples of profitable business models – so we’ll have to figure that out ourselves!"
Ingrid Skogsmo, Senior Research Leader Future Transportation, VTI
Key findings include:
- Societal value first: Robotaxis should meaningfully contribute to societal objectives, including supporting climate neutrality targets, improving traffic efficiency, reducing vehicle numbers, and enhancing the financial sustainability of public transport.
- Complement, not compete: Robotaxis are expected to complement existing public transport rather than replace it.
- Safety and security: Operational safety must match industry leaders. Early involvement of first responders, robust incident reporting, and development of leading safety indicators are essential. However, knowledge gaps remain regarding city- or regional-level traffic impacts.
- Integration with mobility systems: Around-the-clock availability is a potential advantage, but current deployments are too small to demonstrate measurable shifts in mobility behavior. Future designs must ensure efficiency, complementarity, and avoidance of congestion.
- Economic viability: No profitable robotaxi business models currently exist. Large-scale operations require sufficient population density (estimated at 500,000+) to sustain economic viability, making the development of viable operating models for Sweden and Europe an urgent priority.
- Role of cities: Municipal involvement is critical. Clear objectives, early collaboration with public transport agencies and industry operators, and practical planning for curbside management and pick-up/drop-off zones are necessary. Regulatory frameworks may need to encompass the full service model, not just vehicles.
Read the full report of the study
Learn more
Hans Pohl
Learning for Deployment of Robotaxis at Scale
Tel: +46(0)70-840 27 40
Email: hans.pohl@lindholmen.se
Towards sustainable mobility
Innovation collaboration between Sweden and the United States
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